Improved El Niño Forecasting and What It Means For Farmers

El Niño is part of a larger climate pattern known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles, which also includes La Niña. El Niño events typically occur every 2-7 years and are characterised by a several months to a year of higher ocean temperatures, leading to adverse climate conditions. As the water surface temperatures are higher, ocean currents and atmospheric circulation patterns are heavily affected. While the eastern Pacific experiences greater rainfall, which may lead to floods, it can conversely cause droughts in the western Pacific.

The agricultural industry is greatly dependent on favourable climate conditions and early forecasts if conditions are less favourable.

The development of the new Extended Non-Linear Recharge Oscillator (XRO) model by the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) is able to forecast ENSO events up to 18 months ahead, significantly outperforming conventional climate model forecasting.

How is this possible?

The recent advancements in AI technology has allowed climate models to delve deeper into climate physics and pattern recognition. However, unlike other AI-based climate models on the ENSO cycles, the XRO model “offers a transparent view into the mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific recharge-discharge physics and its interactions with other climate patterns outside [the] tropical Pacific”, says Fei-Fei Jin, co-author and professor of atmospheric sciences at SOEST. The XRO model also factors the “extratropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and Atlantic Oceans” as they each have an impact on the predicability of the ENSO cycles depending on the season.

The OXR model also improves upon the short-comings of previous models in accurately predicting ENSO cycles in 3 key areas, according to Malte Stuecker, co-author and assistant professor of oceanography at SOEST:

1. “Accurate knowledge of the state of each of these climate patterns when the ENSO forecast starts”
2. “The correct seasonally varying ‘ocean memory’ of each of these climate patterns”
3. “Correct representations of how each of these other climate patterns affect ENSO in different seasons”

What does this mean for farmers?

Improved ENSO forecasting allows farmers to prepare for adverse climate conditions earlier in advance. By understanding the effects of the cycles on their local climate region, they can pre-emptively acquire the necessary protection, for example AntiHeat MAX®, and begin building natural tolerance to heat and drought before it can threaten their produce.

For more information on AntiHeat MAX® contact us:

info@cropaid.com

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